"这场贸易战的真正赢家，或许并不是发动者"

Club点评：美国关税战本意是遏制中国发展，却在无形中催化了中国向内需驱动型经济的战略转型。北京外国语大学副教授、北京对话特约专家顾宾日前在南华早报发表“How China is turning Trump's tariffs into an opportunity” 评论指出，面对美方“脱钩”压力，中国通过超长期国债、消费补贴和市场准入改革、激活国内消费、支持民企等举措，加快打造开放包容大市场，深化对外开放，并为全球经济注入新动力。

这场贸易战的真正赢家，或许并不是发动者。

Club Comment: The U.S. tariff war was intended to curb China’s rise, but it has inadvertently accelerated China’s strategic shift toward a domestic demand-driven economy.

Gu Bin, Associate Professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University and Fellow with Beijing Club for International Dialogue, published an op-ed in the South China Morning Post titled “How China is turning Trump’s tariffs into an opportunity.” He argues that in response to U.S. “decoupling” pressure, China has boosted domestic consumption, supported the private sector, and accelerated the creation of an open and inclusive mega-market through ultra-long special treasury bonds, consumption subsidies, and reforms in market access. These moves not only deepen China’s opening-up but also inject fresh momentum into the global economy.

The true winner of this trade war may not be the one who started it.

随着中美贸易战的不断升级，美国总统特朗普于4月2日宣布的惩罚性关税，暂时对其他国家的进口商品予以豁免。据悉，此举意在要挟其他国家，迫使他们减少与中国的经济联系，以换取与美方的交易。华盛顿意在孤立中国，但现实却正在朝相反的方向发展。

自去年初以来，中国国内普遍形成共识：内需疲弱已成为制约经济增长的主要因素。为解决这一问题，北京于去年9月出台了提出一揽子逆周期政策，旨在通过提振内需，特别是促进消费，以应对当前经济挑战。

图为5月3日游客在山东省荣成市成山头风景区游览。（图源：新华社）

特朗普实施的高关税政策，进一步坚定了中国减少对美国市场依赖、开辟自主发展道路的决心，努力将自身建设为全球最大的消费市场。

为实现这一目标，中国拥有强有力的政策工具箱，涵盖财政政策、货币政策及其他宏观调控手段，其中，财政政策无疑居于主导地位。

当前财政政策的实施主要包括两个方面。其一，通过安排总规模达10万亿元人民币的地方政府债券置换隐性债务，从而提升债务管理的透明度。据估计，该举措将在未来五年内帮助地方政府减少约2.5个百分点的平均利率，节省6000亿元人民币，并有效缓解地方政府的债务负担，释放其财政空间，使其得以集中资源用于经济增长和社会保障支出。

其二，中央政府将发行超长期特别国债（通常为20年或30年期），用于扩大内需，包括投资与消费两方面。在投资领域，全国范围内正在推进“都市更新”工程，对2000年前建成的老旧小区进行改造，每户平均可获得约5万元财政补助，具体金额依据住房面积而定。这不仅带动了社区环境改善，也促进了家装及相关消费支出。

五一假期期间，郑州某商场手机体验店多款机型参与国补，不少年轻消费者在选购数码产品。（图源：河南日报）

在消费方面，政府通过补贴手段降低汽车和电子产品价格。例如，消费者购买6000元以下的智能手机可节省500元。同时，扩展财政补贴至服务类消费产品的呼声也日益高涨。

今年超长期特别国债的发行规模为1.3万亿元人民币，较去年增加3000亿元。然而，在4月2日“政策转折日”（“解放日关税”）之后，这一规模可能仍显不足，有望进一步上调。

需要指出的是，这一轮财政刺激政策绝非旨在取代私营部门和国际投资，恰恰相反，其目的是支持他们的发展。为此，中国正起草首部《民营经济促进法》，意在优化营商环境，提振民企信心。

4月30日，《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》经十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过，自今年5月20日起施行。（图源：新华社）

尽管国际评级机构惠誉于本月初因财政扩张下调中国主权信用评级，从A+降至A，理由是财政政策过于宽松，但这一决定缺乏依据：中国政府债务率目前为67.5%，远远低于G7平均的123%和G20平均的118%。而中国近期在伦敦发行的60亿元绿色主权债券，认购额近发行规模的七倍，且利率极低，有力回击了评级下调的质疑。

消费能力取决于居民的可支配收入。近期，中国高校教师和公务员的薪资明显提高，农村居民的养老金补贴也呈加速增长态势，城乡待遇差距逐步缩小。但中国仍需进一步努力：中国人均可支配收入占GDP的比重为43%，远低于经合组织国家（OECD）平均60%的水平。

股票与房地产市场是中国家庭财产性收入的重要来源，稳定并促进这两个市场的发展，对刺激消费具有重要意义。政府安排了5000亿元特别国债，为国有大型银行增资，后者将以低利率向上市公司及其大股东提供贷款，用于股票回购和增持，从而提振资本市场。同时，住房按揭贷款利率亦在财政补贴支持下进一步下调，刺激购房需求。

预计到2030年至2035年，中国将发展为全球最大的消费市场。去年消费对中国经济增长的贡献率达到44.5%，已超过投资与出口。今年，这一比例有望在特朗普关税政策的“倒逼”下突破70%。这一转型进程的加速，不仅对中国自身，也对全球经济格局具有深远意义。

首先，长期以来被西方诟病的所谓“中国产能过剩”问题将逐渐消解。在过去四十年改革开放过程中，中国经济增长高度依赖基础设施投资与制造业出口。而随着国内消费的崛起，教育、医疗、文娱等服务业将迎来空前发展，中国的创新能力与国际竞争力亦将实现质的飞跃。

位于亦庄的小米汽车工厂云集了超过700台机器人，可实现关键工序100%自动化，每76秒可下线一辆汽车。（图源：央视新闻）

其次，中国市场将继续向全球消费品开放，外资和进口产品准入门槛将进一步降低。这些市场准入举措完全出于中国自身发展需要，超越了世界贸易组织（WTO）法律框架下的义务，有助于在当前全球化与多边主义遭受冲击的背景下，维护其基本秩序。

再次，消费驱动型经济增长将有助于中国与欧洲及其他经济体建立更加互利的合作关系，推动构建人类命运共同体。至于这一愿景能否包含美国，则取决于美方的战略选择。在中国对美产品实施反制关税之后，欧洲等地区产品迅速填补空缺。例如，中国正在扩大对英国和西班牙商品及投资的市场准入，同时大幅增加对巴西大豆和南非葡萄酒的采购。

贸易战中没有真正的赢家，虽然反制措施是结束冲突的必要手段。与此同时，中国政府的真正目标是将危机转化为机遇，推动经济结构向消费驱动转型，使中国成为全球最大的消费市场。

讽刺的是，这一转型的加速，正是特朗普“意外”给予的“助攻”。 

英文原文如下：

As the US-China trade war escalates, US President Donald Trump has temporarily exempted imports from other countries from the punitive tariffs he announced on April 2. He is reportedly trying to bully others into limiting their economic ties with China in exchange for a deal. Washington aims to isolate China, but the opposite is happening.

Since last year, a consensus has been built that weak domestic demand is the major drag on China’s economic growth. In September, Beijing implemented a package of countercyclical policies to fix the problem, seeking to boost domestic demand with a particular focus on consumption.

Trump’s tariffs have further enhanced China’s determination to reduce dependence on the US market and embark on the path of building itself into a large consumer market.

China has a robust toolbox at its disposal for this purpose. It includes a range of fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal policy taking the lead.

China’s fiscal move has two key parts. First, a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) debt swap plan was announced to help local governments deal with hidden debt, contributing to transparent debt management. The measure reduces interest rates by around 2.5 percentage points, potentially saving 600 billion yuan within five years.

This astronomical debt swap scheme will free up local governments’ fiscal space, enabling them to focus on economic growth and social welfare.

Second, the central government is issuing ultra-long special treasury bonds to boost domestic demand, including investment and consumption.

Urbanisation is taking place across the country. In residential communities built before 2000, each household undergoing renovation is eligible, based on my investigations, for roughly 50,000 yuan, depending on the house size. This initiative promotes home refurbishment and consumption.

Meanwhile, the prices of cars and electronics are discounted thanks to government subsidies. For a smartphone below 6,000 yuan, for example, the consumer could save 500 yuan. Expanding fiscal support to cover service-related products is also highly expected.

Ultra-long special treasury bond issuance this year is set at 1.3 trillion yuan, 300 billion yuan more than last year. However, in the wake of the US’ “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, this planned amount could be insufficient and is likely to increase.

These stimulus measures are by no means meant to replace the private sector and international investment. Indeed, the purpose is to support them. To that end, China is drafting its first law to promote the private sector by improving the business environment.

Fitch lowered China’s sovereign credit rating from A+ to A earlier this month, given its expansive fiscal policy. The move was groundless, considering China’s government debt ratio of 67.5 per cent, which is much lower than the average of Group of Seven’s 123 per cent, and Group of 20’s 118 per cent. China’s recent green sovereign bond issuance of 6 billion yuan in London effectively refuted Fitch’s downgrade, with subscriptions almost seven times the issuance value and very low yields.

The ability to consume depends on one’s disposable income. Lately, salaries of college professors and civil servants have increased alongside pension payments to those living in the countryside. More needs to be done, however, given China’s per capita disposable income over GDP ratio of 43 per cent, far below the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average of 60 per cent.

Stock and real estate markets are important sources of household income, and supporting them is crucial for boosting consumption. Special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan will be issued to recapitalise leading Chinese banks. This will allow them to lend to listed companies and shareholders at low interest rates and thus boost stock market values.

Meanwhile, home mortgage rates are being reduced, which will hopefully stimulate demand in the housing market.

Estimates suggest China will become the world’s biggest consumer market within a decade. Last year, consumption contributed 44.5 per cent of China’s economic growth, surpassing investment and exports. This year the figure will hopefully surpass 70 per cent, spurred by the Trump tariffs.

With the process speeding up, the prospect of China becoming the world’s largest market has huge implications both for the country and the world.

First, the issue of industrial overcapacity, on which the West’s understanding is fundamentally flawed, could soon disappear. For most of the reform and opening-up, China’s rapid growth was led by infrastructural investment and manufacturing exports.

With domestic consumption coming to the forefront, the service sector – including education, healthcare and entertainment – will boom like never before, taking innovation and competitiveness to another level.

Second, the Chinese market will be open to all consumer goods from across the globe, as China commits to even wider market access for foreign investment and products. This will go beyond what is required by the World Trade Organization, sustaining globalisation and multilateralism, now under ruthless attack by the Trump administration.

Third, a consumption-driven growth model will benefit China’s relationship with Europe and others, in line with the vision of a community for the shared future of mankind. Whether the US is involved is Washington’s choice.

China’s countermeasures against the Trump tariffs essentially prohibit the import of US products, and those from Europe and elsewhere can quickly replace them. China is moving to open markets for more British and Spanish products and investments as purchases of Brazilian soybeans and South African wine soar.

A trade war has no winners, although retaliation is a necessary means to end one. Beijing’s real focus is to turn the tariff crisis into an opportunity to build the world’s largest market. 

Ironically, Trump has offered impetus to this structural transformation.