英国移交主权、美军保留基地：查戈斯协议预示印度洋新秩序？

Club提要：查戈斯群岛位于毛里求斯东北方向大约2149公里的印度洋西南海域，长期以来是全球“去殖民化”议题的焦点。当地时间5月22日，英国首相斯塔默宣布与毛里求斯政府达成协议，将查戈斯群岛主权移交给毛里求斯，但以99年租期形式保留美英在该地区的军事基地运营权。

北京对话特约专家、中美研究中心主任洪农在《南华早报》撰文指出，该协议是解决英国殖民遗产、推动全球南方倡导的去殖民化议程的重要一步。查戈斯群岛的未来，将成为全球大国在21世纪寻求秩序重建与责任平衡的重要参考。

Club Briefing: Located approximately 2,149 kilometers northeast of Mauritius in the southwestern Indian Ocean, the Chagos Archipelago has long been a focal point in global debates on decolonization. On May 22 (local time), UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an agreement with the Mauritian government to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. However, the agreement allows the continued operation of US-UK military bases in the region under a 99-year lease arrangement.

In an op-ed piece for the South China Morning Post, Hong Nong, Senior Fellow with Beijing Club for International Dialogue and Director of the Institute for China-America Studies, writes that the agreement represents a significant step in addressing Britain’s colonial legacy and advancing the Global South’s long-standing push for decolonization. The future of the Chagos Archipelago, she argues, will serve as a critical reference point for major powers as they seek to rebuild global order and strike a new balance of responsibility in the 21st century.

围绕查戈斯群岛长达数十年的主权争议，源于英国殖民历史，历经国际法挑战，如今随着英国同意将岛屿主权交还毛里求斯后得到解决。根据5月22日达成的协议，英国保留对该群岛中最大岛屿迪戈加西亚英美军事基地99年的租用权。

在英国殖民统治下，该群岛于1965年从毛里求斯分离，三年后，毛里求斯独立。约2000名查戈斯居民被强制迁移，为迪戈加西亚军事基地建设“腾地”。

原住民查戈斯人，早在20世纪六十年代就被英方强行驱逐，目的就是给英美军事基地“腾地”。几十年过去，至今仍未获得返回家园的权利。这一人道问题，也成为英美在该地区政策中绕不过去的道义困境（图源：央视新闻）

2019年，海牙国际法院发布“咨询意见”，称英国继续管理查戈斯群岛违法，应“尽快”结束。联合国大会随后通过决议，确认毛里求斯对该群岛的主权。

斯塔默领导的英国政府辩称，此次达成的协议是遵守国际法和维护战略安全利益的必要之举。协议包括在迪戈加西亚周围24英里设立缓冲区，未经英国同意不得进行任何建设，禁止“外国“军事和民事力量进入，英国保留拒绝任何访问的权力。

查戈斯群岛俯瞰（图源：央视新闻）

毛里求斯政府表示，该协议是其长期争取收回查戈斯群岛努力的重大胜利。根据协议条款，英国将每年支付毛里求斯1.01亿英镑（1.37亿美元）租用迪戈加西亚基地99年，并设立4000万英镑的信托基金，惠及查戈斯社区发展。

然而，尽管协议解决了主权问题，流离失所的查戈斯人的重新定居权仍未明确，许多人还在寻求返回故乡。

5月22日达成的协议，引起了国际社会广泛关注，特别是在印度洋地区有战略利益的国家。印度支持毛里求斯主张，赞扬该协议，同时担忧中国在该地区的影响力增加。马尔代夫因担心主权变更影响其专属经济区主张，最初于2019年反对联合国查戈斯决议，但于2022年8月转而支持毛里求斯。

Bertrice Pompe和Bernadette Dugasse是出生于迪戈加西亚岛的英国公民，她们因反对英国将查戈斯群岛主权移交毛里求斯的协议而为人知晓。图为5月22日在伦敦高等法院法官推翻临时禁止英国与毛里求斯达成查戈斯群岛协议的禁制令后，她们在英国伦敦法院外接受采访（图源：路透社）

迪戈加西亚基地在美军行动中至关重要，是其在中东和印太地区执行任务的出发点，被视为美国在该地区战略布局不可或缺的一环。据信，美英与毛里求斯密切合作，确保新协议能维持基地的正常运作。

然而，关于中国在印度洋影响力的担忧正在浮现，尤其是在中美战略竞争加剧、北京不断扩展海上实力的背景下。英国指责中国以及其他一些国家在谈判过程中试图“破坏”该协议，并猜测毛里求斯在此过程中可能受到了施压。

英国智库警告政府，应避免任何可能让北京借助基础设施投资或增强对毛里求斯外交影响力，从而在印度洋获得战略立足点的协议。此类警示反映出西方对中国“一带一路”倡议以及其在太平洋岛国外交活动的广泛焦虑。

从中国视角看，英国的担忧毫无根据，反映冷战思维。在给国际法院的一份书面声明中，中国重申坚定支持去殖民化进程，并对毛里求斯的立场表示理解。

3月12日，《印度快报》声称对印度而言，中国在印度洋地区日益频繁的活动“令人担忧”。在大多数印度媒体的报道中，毛里求斯通常被形容为与印度有着特殊联系（图源：南华早报）

中国军方新闻网站近日发表评论文章，驳斥有关中国与查戈斯群岛争议相关的指控，称其毫无根据，完全出于政治动机。文章强调中国致力于和平发展，并指出，英国的殖民历史及其在该地区持续的军事存在才是争议之因。

俄罗斯支持毛里求斯对查戈斯群岛的主权主张，会将该协议视为去殖民化和国际法的胜利，预计俄方会批评西方在印度洋的持续军事存在。莫斯科可能认为，99年租约是一种妥协，维持了美英军事霸权，违背了彻底去殖民化的精神。

包括南非、印尼、巴西和非洲联盟在内的多个国家和地区组织也支持毛里求斯对查戈斯群岛的主权，强调不干涉别国内政原则的重要性。他们同时对美英持续军事存在、特别是迪戈加西亚基地表示担忧。这反映了上述国家和地区组织对大国军事竞争的警惕，以及将查戈斯群岛从殖民遗迹演变为全球战略竞争当代热点的担忧。对许多观察者而言，英毛协议不仅是法律里程碑，也是历史正义与21世纪动态权力如何调和的新考验。

该协议是解决英国殖民遗产、推动全球南方倡导的去殖民化议程的重要一步。然而，批评者警告，该安排可能无法赋予毛里求斯完全主权，并可能以妥协为幌子延续西方在印度洋的军事主导地位。平衡战略利益与真正的自决和人权承诺仍是一项艰巨任务。 

最终，查戈斯群岛的未来和地区稳定将取决于协议实施的透明度，以及国际社会是否持续参与支持真正体现国际法和去殖民化原则的解决方案。

以下为英文原文：

Decades of dispute over the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean, rooted in colonial history and international legal challenges, have been addressed after the United Kingdom agreed to transfer sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius. Under the May 22 deal, the UK retains a 99-year lease on the UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, the largest of the islands.

Under British colonial rule, the island chain was separated from Mauritius in 1965, three years before Mauritius was granted independence. Around 2,000 Chagos residents were forcibly removed to make way for the building of the military base on Diego Garcia.

In 2019, the International Court of Justice in The Hague issued its ''advisory opinion'' that the continued UK administration of the Chagos Archipelago was unlawful and should end ''as rapidly as possible''. The UN General Assembly subsequently passed a resolution affirming Mauritius' sovereignty over the archipelago.

The UK government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended the deal as necessary to comply with international law and maintain strategic security interests. The deal includes a 24-mile buffer zone around Diego Garcia where nothing can be built without UK consent. It also prohibits foreign military and civilian forces from the Chagos Archipelago, with the UK retaining the power to veto any access.

Mauritius hailed the agreement as a significant victory in its long-standing campaign to regain the Chagos Archipelago. Under the terms, the UK will pay Mauritius £101 million (US$137 million) annually to lease the Diego Garcia base for at least 99 years and establish a £40 million trust fund for the benefit of the Chagos community.

But while the deal addresses sovereignty issues, it leaves questions about the resettlement rights of displaced Chagossians, many of whom seek the right to return.

The deal has garnered much international attention, particularly from countries with strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region. India, which backs Mauritius' claim, applauded the agreement, amid concerns about growing Chinese influence in the region. While the Maldives, concerned that changes in sovereignty could affect its exclusive economic zone claims, initially voted against the 2019 UN Chagos resolution, it shifted its position in August 2022 to support Mauritius.

Diego Garcia plays a pivotal role in US military operations, serving as a launch point for missions in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, and is seen as indispensable to America's strategic footprint in the region. The United States is thought to have worked closely with both the UK and Mauritius to ensure the new arrangement would preserve the functionality of the base.

But concerns have surfaced about China's influence in the Indian Ocean, especially with rising strategic competition with the US and as Beijing expands its maritime presence. The UK has accused China, among other countries, of attempting to ''collapse'' the deal during negotiations, amid speculation of pressure on Mauritius.

British policy think tanks have warned the government against any Chagos agreement that could enable Beijing to gain a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean region, whether through infrastructure investments or increasing diplomatic influence over Mauritius. The speculation reflects broader anxieties in Western capitals over China's Belt and Road Initiative and its Pacific island diplomacy.

From China's perspective, the UK's concerns are unfounded and reflect a Cold War mentality. In its written statement to the International Court of Justice, China reiterated its firm support for the decolonisation process and expressed understanding of Mauritius' position.

The military news website of the Chinese Armed Forces recently published an opinion piece challenging claims linking China to the dispute as baseless and driven by political motivations. It emphasised China's commitment to peaceful development and pointed to Britain's colonial history and continued military presence in the region.

While Russia supports Mauritius' sovereignty claim over the Chagos Archipelago and may well frame the broader agreement as a win for decolonisation and international law, it is expected to be critical of the continued Western military presence in the Indian Ocean. Moscow is likely to view the 99-year lease as a compromise that preserves US-UK military hegemony in the region, undermining the spirit of full decolonisation.

Several countries and regional organisations - including South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil and the African Union - have also affirmed their support for Mauritius' sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago while expressing concern over the ongoing US-UK military presence, particularly the base on Diego Garcia. This reflects their wariness of great power military competition and highlights the importance of respecting the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.

The Chagos islands have evolved from being a relic of colonialism to a contemporary flashpoint in global strategic competition. For many observers, the UK-Mauritius deal is more than a legal milestone - it is a test of how historical justice can be reconciled with 21st century power dynamics.

The accord represents a meaningful step towards addressing the legacy of British colonialism and advancing the decolonisation agenda championed by much of the Global South. Critics, however, have warned that the arrangement may fall short of delivering full sovereignty to Mauritius and could perpetuate Western military dominance in the Indian Ocean under the guise of compromise. Balancing strategic interests with genuine commitments to self-determination and human rights remains a delicate task.

Ultimately, the future of the Chagossian community and regional stability will depend on how transparently the agreement is implemented, and whether the international community remains engaged in supporting a resolution that truly reflects the principles of international law and decolonisation.